Kenyan Weather Experts Maintain Enhanced Rainfall Forecast Despite Delayed Onset
Regional climate specialists have urged Kenyans not to interpret a slow start to the rainy season as evidence that warnings of enhanced rainfall were wrong.
Meteorologists and climatologists from seven East African countries reaffirmed their September outlook during a journalists–scientists dialogue organised by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), according to Kenya News Agency on October 16.
What the forecasters are saying
Jemimah Ongoma of the Kenya Meteorological Department said the seasonal forecast had not changed. Experts still expect above-average rainfall in many areas during the October–December period, including Kajiado.
The exact timing of a season’s first substantial rainfall can vary across locations. A late onset in one area does not necessarily determine the total rainfall received over the whole three-month period.
Seasonal outlook versus a daily forecast
A seasonal climate forecast indicates broader probabilities over several months. It is not a promise that rain will fall on a specific day or at a particular homestead.
Households should therefore distinguish between the long-range outlook, short-term warnings and direct observations from their location. A forecast of an unusually wet season can coexist with dry weeks at the beginning.
Why the distinction affects planning
Farmers face difficult decisions about land preparation and planting when the first rains are delayed. Local forecasts and agricultural extension advice can help reduce the risk of planting too early or too late.
In towns and flood-prone settlements, drainage maintenance, safe storage of documents and attention to official warnings remain useful preparations even when skies are still clear. Authorities also need to review vulnerable roads, bridges and river crossings before sustained rainfall begins.
How to avoid weather misinformation
Claims that a seasonal forecast has been cancelled should be checked against official updates. Weather agencies revise forecasts as new measurements emerge; a genuine update should identify the issuing agency, forecast period and area concerned.
People should consult the Kenya Meteorological Department for location-specific guidance and continue to follow county disaster-preparedness notices rather than relying on isolated social media predictions.
Source: Kenya News Agency, October 16, 2026; Kenya Meteorological Department.
