Kenya Ride-Hailing Minimum Fare Survey: Why 59% of Nairobians Oppose It
Ride-hailing has become an important part of daily transport in Nairobi, and proposed minimum-fare regulation has raised questions about affordability and driver incomes. A TIFA Research survey of 733 Nairobi residents, published on August 20, 2026, found that many passengers would change their travel choices if fares increased significantly.
So when policymakers floated the idea of a government-mandated minimum fare to boost driver earnings, it seemed like a straightforward win for a struggling workforce. But a new TIFA Research survey of 733 Nairobi residents suggests the public isn’t so sure, and the reason has less to do with drivers than with their own strained wallets.
A Household Squeeze That Leaves No Room to Absorb More Costs
Before even asking about ride-hailing, TIFA’s survey paints a picture of a population under real financial pressure. Eighty-one percent of Nairobi households say they’re already grappling with either rising living costs or shrinking incomes. The single biggest complaint cited by 62% of respondents is the high cost of living: transport, fuel, food, and education.
The numbers back this up. Between June 2025 and June 2026, prices for everyday essentials jumped sharply: tomatoes up 41%, diesel up 30%, kale (sukuma wiki) up 27%, and petrol up 15%. Unsurprisingly, 92% of consumers say they’re at least somewhat concerned about rising prices, with 81% describing themselves as “very concerned” a worry that peaks among adults over 35 (91%) and women (84%).
This context matters enormously for how people view any policy that touches transport costs. As the report puts it, rising prices have already eaten into disposable income, making passengers highly sensitive to anything that pushes fares up further.
Ride-Hailing Isn’t a Luxury — It’s Daily Infrastructure
Part of why fare increases feel so threatening is that ride-hailing has become embedded in ordinary life, not just occasional convenience. The average user takes 6.8 trips a month, roughly 1–2 a week, and 72% of all trips serve essential purposes: commuting to work or school (28%), business travel (20%), shopping and errands (15%), and emergencies (9%). Only a smaller share, 29%, is discretionary travel like social outings.
In other words, a fare hike wouldn’t just affect the occasional night-out ride; it would hit people’s commutes, their businesses, and their ability to get to work.
Low Awareness, But Strong Opinions Once Informed
Interestingly, most people hadn’t even heard about the proposed policy before being surveyed. Only 27% of respondents were aware that a minimum fare was being discussed. But once TIFA explained the proposal — that the current minimum fare of roughly KSh 180–220 would rise to improve driver earnings opinions crystallized quickly, and largely negatively.
- 63% believe fares should be set by market competition among ride-hailing companies, not government regulation.
- 59% oppose the proposed minimum fare policy outright, compared to just 39% who support it.
- Opposition was consistent across age and gender groups, though strongest among those aged 35 and older.
Crucially, the report stresses that this opposition isn’t really about denying drivers a fair wage. When asked why they opposed the policy, the top reasons were that the market, not government, should determine fares (36%) and that a mandated minimum would make rides too expensive (36%). Only a tiny fraction (2%) suggested the government instead address affordability by lowering fuel costs. On the other side, supporters most often cited driver welfare (16%) as their reason for backing the policy, showing that even critics of the policy aren’t necessarily critics of the cause.
What Happens If Fares Actually Go Up?
Perhaps the most consequential finding for policymakers and ride-hailing companies alike is what people say they’d actually do if fares rose significantly:
- 60% would switch to alternative transport, the overwhelming majority (44%) to matatus, with smaller shares turning to boda bodas, walking, or personal vehicles.
- 22% would stick with ride-hailing but change their behavior either using it less often or switching to cheaper ride-hailing tiers.
- Only 18% say they’d continue using ride-hailing exactly as they do now.
That’s a striking signal of price sensitivity. If the findings hold, a mandated fare increase could trigger a meaningful drop in ride-hailing demand, which, ironically, could undercut the very goal of improving driver incomes by reducing the number of trips available to them.
The Core Tension: A Policy Dilemma With No Easy Answer
TIFA frames this as a genuine policy dilemma rather than a simple case of public opposition to driver welfare. The logic chain looks like this: a higher minimum fare could genuinely improve driver earnings per trip, but it also raises passenger costs, which in an already inflation-battered economy could suppress demand, leading to fewer trips overall and, potentially, lower total earnings for drivers despite the higher per-trip rate.
In short, Nairobi residents broadly agree that drivers deserve better pay. What they’re far less convinced about is that a government-mandated fare floor paid for directly out of already-stretched household budgets is the right way to get there.
